Lenwood, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS65 KVEF 151148
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
448 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures. Late-
week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region, which will
increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will cool off
temperatures substantially.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.

Last night, a shortwave pushed inland and brought modest moisture to
the region by way of a northward moving swath of sprinkles across
the forecast area. Meanwhile, an upper-level low continues to deepen
in the southeastern Pacific Ocean and will continue to meander
closer to the coastline over the next few days, ushering moisture
into the Desert Southwest. Additionally, a trough will start to drop
through the Intermountain West, placing our forecast area in a
convergence zone. This combination of moisture advection and
convergence ascent will result in increased PoPs across the southern
Great Basin on Wednesday and gusty south-southwest winds. Rainfall
amounts will generally be low, but will favor the higher terrain
with occasional lightning possible. More detail regarding these
phasing systems and what that looks like for late-week into the
weekend can be found in the LONG TERM discussion.

Wednesday will be the last day of "warm" temperatures for the week,
with persistent "Minor" Heat Risk across desert valleys.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The closed low and northern shortwave trough begin to phase on
Thursday, resulting in a larger, positively-tilted trough over the
western US. At the surface, guidance shows a cold front sliding
southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. The frontal boundary should serve as the focus for
precipitation as moisture pools along ahead of it and underneath
the colder air aloft. Expecting scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the front Thursday afternoon, with
activity potentially continuing Thursday night and Friday as the
front sags southward. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty in
model guidance regarding the convective environment Thursday-
Friday, mainly due to discrepancies in the magnitude of low-level
moisture and its overlap with the coldest air aloft. However, it
is likely that at least modest instability (100+ J/kg) will occur.
With wet bulb zero heights roughly 4500-6000 ft AGL in forecast
soundings, would not be surprised to see graupel and/or small hail
with the more intense convection. While PWATs are forecast to be
above the 90th percentile of climatology, this is nothing like
monsoonal moisture, so it`ll take training storms to cause any
flood concerns, and that would likely be localized and relatively
minor. On the wintry side, snow levels drop from over 8000 ft down
to ~6500 ft, so some late-season minor snow accumulations are
likely in the Spring Mountains and Sierra.

Other than the precipitation chances, noteworthy changes to the
weather include gusty winds and below-normal temperatures. Strongest
winds are expected Thursday, with minor wind impacts likely (70%
chance) across western San Bernardino County. Elsewhere, chances for
wind impacts are 30-50%, with widespread gusts of 25-40 mph
expected. Once the low closes off over our area on Friday, the risk
for impactful winds decreases. Temperature-wise, highs return to
seasonal values on Thursday but drop 5-15 degrees below normal on
Friday.

As this system pushes east and moves out over the weekend, dry
conditions return and temperatures moderate. By Sunday-Monday,
temperatures are forecast to be near-normal for mid-April. While
we`ll likely stay dry, the pattern doesn`t necessarily go quiet
next week as subsequent weak troughs may induce Springtime winds.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Early
this morning, ceilings around 15kft prevail with isolated to
scattered virga/light showers moving northward across the Las
Vegas Valley. The confidence for any of these to impact the
terminal is very low, thus light and generally variable winds are
expected until late morning with winds settle out of the east.
Ceilings will improve quickly after daybreak, with VFR conditions
prevailing through the forecast period. Winds gradually veer from
the east later this morning to the south and southwest by this
evening, with speeds expected to remain around 6-9KT for the
duration.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds today will be
light and variable early, settling out of the east and southeast
through this afternoon. Gusty up-valley winds are expected to
develop at KBIH for a few hours this afternoon, with gusts up to
20-25KT. These gusts will be short-lived, diminishing near or
just after 16/00Z. KDAG will see elevated diurnally driven winds,
with sustained speeds around 12-14KT, and gusts developing there
after sunset. Otherwise, wind speeds will remain under 10KT, with
VFR conditions and passing mid and high clouds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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